US Real Estate- Twice as many ‘improving housing markets’

The number of real estate markets showing improvement nearly doubled in January with the addition of 40 new metros to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI). The IMI now shows 76 improving housing markets, up from 41 in December, with 31 states and the District of Columbia represented by at least one entry.

In Florida, three cities made it onto IMI’s improved list: Jacksonville, Cape Coral and Punta Gorda.

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the US that are improving. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data.. The three indicators are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A metropolitan area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective lows before being included on the improving markets list. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets.

Other USA metros that showed improvement are Dallas, Denver, Honolulu, Indianapolis, Nashville and Philadelphia. A complete list of all 76 metropolitan areas currently on the IMI is available on NAHB’s website.

Source: 2012 Florida Realtors

Positively looking up in Florida

The latest market statistics show continued improvement for Florida. Existing home and condo sales are up in November in year-to-year comparisons. Jobless claims are down slightly and employment growth is up.

Despite national and global headwinds, Florida’s real estate market is entering 2012 on an upward trend, according to three leading U.S. economists : Dr. John Tuccillo for Florida Realtors, Mark Vitner for Wells Fargo, and Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. 

Looking around the state, Vitner said Jacksonville’s unemployment rate has dropped and home prices are stabilizing. In Orlando, prices have not yet reached bottom, he said, but the winter tourism season should help the regional economy. Tampa and Southwest Florida have seen solid job growth, with little new home construction. South Florida’s economy is growing thanks to trade relationships with Latin America and the Caribbean, while in the Panhandle, Fort Walton Beach is outperforming Panama City and Pensacola, according to Vitner. 

Dr. Tuccillo stated that in Florida, the homes today may be undervalued, and added. “That a buyer who plans to own the home for five to seven years can get some great bargains today.” “Our state is in a mini-recovery,” he said.

“Florida’s economy is recovering, with tourism and healthcare leading the way,” Vitner said. “International tourism has been particularly strong in Miami and Orlando.”

Dr. Yun, , said many Florida markets are showing sharp drops in inventories of homes for sale – a sign that demand is picking up and prices are stabilizing. “That’s a major change from just a year ago,” he said. “Buyers have stepped back into the Florida market.”

Yun said he was particularly optimistic about the outlook for South Florida due to international buyers. “Don’t be surprised to see a gain in home prices in the Miami and Naples markets in the next 18 months,” he said. “From there, the recovery is likely to roll northward to Central Florida and then North Florida.”

Tuccillo noted that foreclosed and distressed properties will remain a significant part of the Florida market in 2012, and that lenders are feeding these properties into the market at a gradual pace rather than pushing them out all at once.

 

Source: Florida Realtors®

US home sales continue to climb.

Existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent to a rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2 percent above the 3.94 million-unit pace in November 2010.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said more people are taking advantage of the buyer’s market. “Sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34 percent above the cyclical low point in mid-2010."  

An elevated level of contract failures continues to hold back a broader sales recovery. Contract failures were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in November, unchanged from October but notably above a year ago when it was 9 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 5.8 percent to 2.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.7-month supply in October.

 Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 9.8 percent to an annual pace of 560,000 in November and are 7.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,200, which is 0.1 percent below November 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 4.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000 and are 15.7 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $133,400, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in November and are 12.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $143,300, which is 2.1 percent below November 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 3.6 percent to an annual level of 1.16 million in November and are 11.5 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the West was $195,300, down 8.4 percent below a year ago.

SOURCE: Florida Realtors®

Gradual improvement for Real Estate in year 2012

Although the housing market struggled to maintain an even footing in 2011, gradual improvement is expected in 2012 and beyond, according to projections at the 2011 Realtors Conference.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales should be stronger based on  a pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could stimulate the real estate market when conditions improve.  Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011. Read entire article here.

Florida recovering a little faster than the nation

Wells Fargo released its Economic Outlook for Florida yesterday, and the news was a little positive. According to Wells Fargo, Florida is recovering more quickly that the rest of the country, but largely because the state fell so far during the crash.

It is predicted that the chance of a second recession is relatively low but recovery will be “incredibly sluggish.”  Jobs are key, and the report foresees a total of 40,000 new jobs added by the end of this year and an additional 64,000 in 2012. The report points to an upswing of jobs, albeit small, in retail and trade, as well as professional and business jobs.

Wells Fargo's other predictions for Florida

• Foreclosures will continue to impact home prices.

• The Florida economy will continue to grow. Wells Fargo predicts 2 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012.

• Floridians’ personal income will also grow: 4.2 percent in 2011 and 4.3 percent in 2012.

• Home construction, while improving, won’t hit its full stride again – 1.2 million new homes – until 2015.

• The number of foreign investors could decline. European money problems have dampened demand from across the Atlantic, while a weaker Canadian dollar has impacted the value to Canadians. The flow of investors from the Americas has also declined. (I have personally felt this in the past few weeks).

• People will continue to move to Florida, though at a still-subdued pace: an expected 110,000 in 2011 and predicted 130,000 in 2012.

The full Wells Fargo report is available online.